UNDERSTANDING ATTRITION AND PREDICTING EMPLOYMENT DURATIONS OF FORMER STAFF IN A PUBLIC SECTOR SOCIAL SERVICE ORGANIZATION By

provided me with significant assistance and feedback to produce this thesis. I would also like to thank my committee, Douglas Perkins and Craig Anne Heflinger, for their rigorous reviews of my thesis and unwavering support for my personal and professional development. I would also like to acknowledge the staff of the state social service organization and my colleagues who were part of the larger project that led to the provision of my thesis data. Lastly, I would like to acknowledge my friends, colleagues, and family from whom I am constantly learning. 1 Introduction State social service organizations are continually tasked to do more with less. Unlike private sector human service organizations, which are also faced with limited financial resources and higher demand than their capacity can supply, the public sector faces accommodating ever-changing policy and its related bureaucracy. Federal policies for Temporary Assistance to Needy Families (TANF), Food Stamps, and Medicaid over the past decade have devolved responsibility down to states, increasing state discretion to implement programs while congruently increasing pressure on states to meet performance outcomes for the obtainment of federal financing (Nathan & Gais, 1999). Hence, state social service organizations (SSSOs) have had to accommodate new expectations intrinsically tied to performance-based financing, such as instituting better client-monitoring and improving performance outcomes. The shift towards increasing state and local responsibility in the public sector has appeared to create a ripple effect where studies have observed a layering on of responsibilities to front-line staff In this context, where public sector social service employees are continually being asked to ―do more,‖ the risk of burnout and staff turnover is daunting. Ironically, the increase in workload is justified by the need to pull down federal dollars; however, high staff turnover is a significant financial hemorrhage for organizations. Human resource analysts generally suggest that the cost of replacing an employee equals one-third to one-half of the exiting employee's annual salary. Agencies incur heavy costs through executing administrative functions related to termination, as well as recruitment, hiring, 2 Struggling in an environment of depleted resources, public social service organizations can little afford the direct and indirect costs linked with high turnover rates. To buffer one's organization against these costs, investing in the retention of high performing employees rather than replacing weak performers is often more efficacious (Abelson & High staff turnover has critical implications for organizational effectiveness and human well-being. Workers struggle to give …